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EdgeSon

in the '25 season, what was the toughest division to play in?

The NFC West, comfortably. Its four teams went 41–27 against the rest of the league — a .603 win rate, and the only division above .560.

The NFC North is the only other one clearly over break-even. The NFC East is the other end of it, barely holding .400 across a season that included a tie.

.603win rate
NFC West, combined
n = 68
41–27
record across the four teams

Combined record for each division, 2025 regular season.

divisionconferencewltwin_pct
NFC WestNFC4127060.3
NFC NorthNFC3829155.9
AFC SouthAFC3632052.9
AFC EastAFC3632052.9
AFC WestAFC3434050.0
NFC SouthNFC3038044.1
AFC NorthAFC2939042.6
NFC EastNFC2740139.7

8 rows

How this was computed544 rowssettled

The combined straight-up record of the four teams in each division, against every opponent.

window
2025 regular season
filters
  • regular season games only
  • all opponents, including inter-conference
  • the four teams in a division counted together
excluded
  • ties, which count for neither side of the rate
sample
544 rows

ok for each of these divisions, how often did they cover the spread vs lose against it — keep the wins and losses there too so i can compare

The NFC West answers both questions: best record in the league at .603, and the best cover rate at 60.3%. The market spent the season a step behind them.

The NFC North is the interesting one. Second-best record at .559, and 47.8% against the number — priced correctly, or a little rich, most weeks. The AFC West is the mirror of it: a flat .500 season that only covered 42.6% of the time, which is a market expecting more than it got.

Straight-up and against-the-spread record by division, 2025 regular season.

divisionconfsu_wsu_lsu_twin_pctcoversats_lossespushescover_pct
NFC WestNFC4127060.34127060.3
AFC SouthAFC3632052.93731054.4
AFC EastAFC3632052.93533051.5
NFC EastNFC2740139.73335048.5
NFC SouthNFC3038044.13335048.5
NFC NorthNFC3829155.93235147.8
AFC NorthAFC2939042.63136146.3
AFC WestAFC3434050.02939042.6

8 rows

How this was computed544 rowssettled

Straight-up record and against-the-spread record for each division side by side, ordered by cover rate.

window
2025 regular season
filters
  • regular season games only
  • closing spread
  • the four teams in a division counted together
excluded
  • pushes, removed from both sides of the cover rate
  • ties, which count for neither side of the win rate
sample
544 rows